As data starts to become available, the impact of the property market changes is becoming clearer by the day, and the story the data is telling us is not what we expected.
The Greater Geelong property market is proving to be quite resilient, and across many suburbs we have seen price growth.
But it has not been smooth. Most suburbs experienced declines in the months following the budget announcement then returned to growth over June and July.
The locations with the strongest growth are those that have traditionally been the most affordable, including Bell Post Hill, Newcomb and Norlane.
Those areas with a median house price below $800,000 have weathered the storm well and our outer townships have also done well, including Lara, Bannockburn and Drysdale.
Areas that have experienced negative growth are mostly coastal, still impacted by post-COVID oversupply issues including Anglesea, Torquay and Ocean Grove.
What is also quite interesting is the stock volumes.
We are experiencing perhaps the lowest number of listings across the region that we have seen in many years. This is contributing to the relatively stable demand that is holding prices up.
Sales are still happening, but the volume of sales is low and the choice for buyers is low; demand is meeting supply.
Days on market in some areas are still quite low. In Bell Post Hill, only 13 properties were on the market over the last month, and it takes just 15 days to sell on average.
Newcomb had 17 properties on the market, taking only 18 days to sell. However, in Portarlington, which has a relatively small population, 80 properties on the market over the last month have taken 118 days, or four months, on average to sell.
Also quite heartening is the absorption rate of Armstrong Creek, where over 500 properties have sold in the last 12 months. That is more than 45 sales per month, making it a very liquid market, something investors would look at in tough times.
This brings me to the concept of liquidity. What is something worth if it takes a long time to sell? What is something worth if there is no buyer?
That question is becoming more prominent by the day, especially in the higher brackets over the $1m mark.
In locations such as Newtown – where only 166 sold properties over the last 12 months and currently has about half that number for sale – the median house price has slumped 24 per cent over the last year to below $1m.
Selling homes at higher values takes a lot of courage, patience and time.
Darryn Lyons, who listed his house on the Esplanade for more than $7m three months ago, has just dropped the price by $2m.
Other properties at the top are also under extreme pressure. The cost of liquidity in these markets is on average about negative 20 per cent if you want to sell within the standard six-week campaign.
There has never been a better time to upsize in the Geelong region, with strong price growth and liquidity still around in the lower brackets and the opposite in the upper end. If you have the means, strike now for that long-term family abode.
GARETH KENT